Analytical and Numerical Bifurcation Analysis of a Forest-Grassland Ecosystem Model with Human Interaction

We perform both analytical and numerical bifurcation analysis of a forest-grassland ecosystem model coupled with human interaction. The model consists of two nonlinear ordinary differential equations incorporating the human perception of forest/grassland value. The system displays multiple steady states corresponding to different forest densities as well as regimes characterized by both stable and unstable limit cycles. We derive analytically the conditions with respect to the model parameters that give rise to various types of codimension-one criticalities such as transcritical, saddle-node, and Andronov-Hopf bifurcations and codimension-two criticalities such as cusp and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations. We also perform a numerical continuation of the branches of limit cycles. By doing so, we reveal turning points of limit cycles marking the appearance/disappearance of sustained oscillations. These far-from-equilibrium criticalities that cannot be detected analytically give rise to the abrupt loss of the sustained oscillations, thus leading to another mechanism of catastrophic shift

Modelling the development and arrangement of the primary vascular structure in plants

Background and Aims The process of vascular development in plants results in the formation of a specific array of bundles that run throughout the plant in a characteristic spatial arrangement. Although much is known about the genes involved in the specification of procambium, phloem and xylem, the dynamic processes and interactions that define the development of the radial arrangement of such tissues remain elusive. Methods This study presents a spatially explicit reaction-diffusion model defining a set of logical and functional rules to simulate the differentiation of procambium, phloem and xylem and their spatial patterns, starting from a homogeneous group of undifferentiated cells. Key Results Simulation results showed that the model is capable of reproducing most vascular patterns observed in plants, from primitive and simple structures made up of a single strand of vascular bundles (protostele), to more complex and evolved structures, with separated vascular bundles arranged in an ordered pattern within the plant section (e.g. eustele). Conclusions The results presented demonstrate, as a proof of concept, that a common genetic-molecular machinery can be the basis of different spatial patterns of plant vascular development. Moreover, the model has the potential to become a useful tool to test different hypotheses of genetic and molecular interactions involved in the specification of vascular tissue

Modelling Lobbying Behaviour and Interdisciplinarity Dynamics in Academia

Disciplinary diversity is being recognized today as the key to establish a vibrant academic environment with bigger potential for breakthroughs in research and technology. However, the interaction of several factors including policies, and behavioral attitudes put significant barriers on advancing interdisciplinarity. A "cognitive rigidity" may rise due to reactive academic lobbying favouring inbreeding. Here, we address, analyse and discuss a mathematical model of lobbying and interdisciplinarity dynamics in Academia. The model consists of four coupled non-linear Ordinary Differential Equations simulating the interaction between three types of academic individuals and a state reflecting the rate of knowledge advancement which is related to the level of disciplinary diversity. Our model predicts a rich nonlinear behaviour including multiplicity of states and sustained periodic oscillations resembling the everlasting struggle between the "new" and the "old". The effect of a control policy that inhibits lobbying is also studied. By appropriate adjustment of the model parameters we approximated the jump/phase transitions in breakthroughs in mathematical and molecular biological sciences resulted by the increased flow of Russian scientists in the USA after the dissolution of the Soviet Union starting in 1989, the launch of the Human Genome Project in 1992 and the Internet diffusion starting in 2000

An agricultural system in a hostile environment: the Late Roman site of Umm al-Dabadib - Kharga Oasis (Egypt)

Funded by an ERC consolidator Grant, focuses on archaeological and environmental methodology used to investigate a chain of Late Roman fortified settlements of the Kharga Oasis, located in Egypt’s Western Desert, that in the Fourth Century AD represented a portion of the southern boundary of the Roman empire. The best-preserved site is Umm al-Dabadib containing the virtually intact remains of an imposing settlement with a vast and elaborated agricultural system. The site fully represents the struggle between man and environment on a knife edge. Ancient Roman centuriatio (field division), subterranean aqueducts (qanat), covered conduits, open-air canals, outlines of fields are studied using a combination of classic and innovative investigation techniques (3D survey, archaeological excavations of the built-up area and the agricultural system, archaeobotanical analyses, ceramic studies, analyses of satellite images)

Giving life to the map can save more lives. Wildfire scenario with interoperable simulations

Abstract. In the Mediterranean region, drier and hotter summers are leading to more likely and severe wildfires. The authors propose an innovative approach for situational awareness by giving life to maps and exploiting interoperable GIS, hazard models, simulations, and interconnection analysis processes aimed to enhance preparedness and strengthen the resilience of responding organizations. The information related to a virtual city and its countryside has been implemented in the terrain of simulation systems. The TIGER wildfire model software has been adapted to a scenario where districts, refugee camps and critical infrastructures can be impacted by a fire and has been linked to a smoke dispersion model, and associated impacts to the electricity network and roads. The transfer of computed fire propagation and combustion data to the AI-powered SWORD simulation enable more accurate computing of damage and loss. In SWORD, civil protection, military assets and humanitarian actions can be performed for training and operation preparation. The simulation data about fire and assets' deployments can feed a web app map or a command and control system, thus providing situational awareness for optimal decision-making, and analysis about people in danger, network interconnections and potential service disruption. Disaster managers and commanders can interact with simulated assets performing their chosen courses of action and analyse the outcomes.In conclusion, tests in a wildfire case study demonstrated a high level of interoperability among those systems and the possibility to provide updated situational awareness leading to better emergency preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience building, finally contributing to save more lives.</p

Adult conspecific density affects Janzen-Connell patterns by modulating the recruitment exclusion zones

Plant-soil negative feedback (NF) is a well-established phenomenon that, by preventing the dominance of a single species, allows species coexistence and promotes the maintenance of biodiversity. At community scale, localized NF may cause the formation of exclusion zones under adult conspecifics leading to Janzen-Connell (JC) distribution. In this study, we explore the connection between adult density, either conspecifics or heterospecifics, on the probability of occurrence of JC distributions. Using an individual-based modelling approach, we simulated the formation of exclusion zones due to the build-up of NF in proximity of conspecific adult plants and assessed the frequency of JC distribution in relation to conspecifics and heterospecifics density ranging from isolated trees to closed forest stands. We found that JC recruitment distribution is very common in the case of an isolated tree when NF was strong and capable to form an exclusion zone under the parent tree. At very low NF intensity, a prevalence of the decreasing pattern was observed because, under such conditions, the inhibitory effect due to the presence of the mother tree was unable to overcome the clustering effect of the seed dispersal kernel. However, if NF is strong the JC frequency suddenly decreases in stands with a continuous conspecific cover likely as a result of progressive expansion of the exclusion zone surrounding all trees in closed forest stands. Finally, our simulations showed that JC distribution should not be frequent in the case of rare species immersed in a matrix of heterospecific adults. Overall, the model shows that a plant suffering from strong NF in monospecific stands can rarely exhibit a recruitment pattern fitting the JC model. Such counterintuitive results would provide the means to reconcile the well-established NF framework with part the forest ecologists’ community that is still skeptical towards the JC model.SynthesisOur model highlights the complex interconnection between NF intensity, stand density, and recruitment patterns explaining where and why the JC distribution occurs. Moreover, predicting the occurrence of JC in relation to stand density we clarify the relevance of this ecological phenomenon for future integration in plant community frameworks

A Semi-Automatic Numerical Algorithm for Turing Patterns Formation in a Reaction-Diffusion Model

The Turing pattern formation is modeled by reaction - diffusion (RD) type partial differential equations , and it plays a crucial role in ecological studies. Big data analytics and suitable frameworks to manage and predict structures and configurations are mandatory. The processing and resolution procedures of mathematical models relies upon numerical schemes, and concurrently upon the related automated algorithms. Starting from a RD model for vegetation patterns, we propose a semi-automatic algorithm based on a smart numerical criterion for observing ecological reliable results. Numerical experiments are carried out in the case of spot's formations